Dear Valued Clients and Friends –
It was another generally positive day in markets, with today marking the 99th consecutive trading day that the S&P 500 closed above its 50-day moving average. Believe it or not, this has happened many times in history and certainly isn’t even halfway to 1995’s run of 257 (back when I was graduating high school), but it’s impressive nonetheless.
What’s On David’s Mind
As my friends at Strategas Research are prone to do, they inundated me with some market history this morning that adds a lot of color to a particular theme many investors are probably lacking. As the media stays fixated day by day about what the Fed will do and when, despite abundant evidence that, well, it doesn’t matter, a few historical realities seem relevant.
The “average” return in the stock market for the two months before a first-rate cut is +2% (yawn), and the average for the two months after a first-rate cut is -1.5% (bigger yawn). But in the data set of ten “first” rate cuts, since I was born fifty years ago, there are periods where the market was down -8% and -6% in the sixty days prior, and points where it was up +11% and +12%, so who exactly cares about the “average”? In the two months after a rate cut, we have -25% periods (the golden age of 1974, where, despite my birth, the best thing that happened in the whole world that year was USC football) and +17% periods.
In short, markets sometimes go up a lot and down a lot and up a little and down a little before a rate cut and after a rate cut. Okay, now go make investment decisions around that airtight historical record. =)
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Market Action
*CNBC, DJIA, March 27th, 2024
Dow: +478 points (1.22%)
S&P: +.86%
Nasdaq: +.51%
10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.19% (-4 basis points)
Top-performing sector: Utilities (+2.75%)
Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (+.11%)
WTI Crude Oil: $81.70/barrel (+.10%)
Key Economic Point of the Day
- The cargo ship Dali crashed into the Scott Key bridge in Baltimore yesterday and, as of today, tragically has claimed six people and closed the port of Baltimore until further notice.
Ask Brian
“Hi Brian, I have friends who are interested in learning more about your approach to market investment and wealth management. They are both doctors. Can you set up a meeting with them to go over everything that you do for your clients? Also, what is the minimum balance that they would need to bring into the Bahnsen Group to start a portfolio? Thank you so much! -E.C. |
It’s great to hear from you, and thank you for the introductions. Of course, I am happy to connect with them. We really do try to NOT set a hard dollar minimum for clients we would take on. There are $50MM clients that we wouldn’t take on and $1MM clients we would, so it really just comes down to mutual fit. TBG is best utilized as a holistic advisor for clients quarterbacking A-Z of clients’ financial lives. Financial planning, estate planning, tax planning, investment management, business consultation, and real estate are a few services offerings that I’ll go through and see what may make the most sense in each of these cases you mentioned. I am teeing it up this way for you to convey to them that it’s best for me to walk through our entire process and see how we can add the most value overall rather than them looking at TBG solely as an ‘ala carte’ investment manager. |
On Deck
- Tomorrow we have initial jobless claims, pending home sales, and then a revision to Q2 GDP that will grab headlines in the economic calendar.
Send questions any time, and have a great night.
With regards,
Brian T. Szytel
Co-CIO, Senior Managing Director, Partner
bszytel@thebahnsengroup.com
The Bahnsen Group
www.thebahnsengroup.com
The DC Today features research from S&P, Baird, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and the IRN research platform of FactSet.